Short, Mid and Long Term Perspectives in Corona Times (1 of 2)
COVID-19 is one of the biggest collective crises that each of us has ever experienced. In times of uncertainty, we need perspectives. While Groundhog Day is still not over, there is light on the horizon. In the end, we could turn all the fear and pain into something better - global resilience. Get some inspiration for where this journey can lead us to.
Do you know this feeling? You open your eyes in the morning, and the first thought is: “Oh no, this can’t be happening!” It is like Groundhog Day, like waking in the Matrix, again and again, to realize that someone uploaded the wrong program! Day #23 of my temporary lockdown life, and yes, it still feels surreal.
Early March, I visited friends in New York. Next moment I found myself on one of the last flights back to Vienna, Austria. We learned almost by the hour about new restrictions and curfews implemented back home. Around us, Manhattan was still vibrant. The same unique atmosphere prevailed in my other hometown-by-heart, the city of Moscow. What must not, cannot be, combined with a strange calm before the storm. Both cities respectively their countries were lagging behind 1–2 weeks, not only in cases but also in preventive measures.
By now, a significant part of the world is in lockdown. A few countries are ahead of others, but millions of people are asking themselves: “What is next? When can we go back to a normal life? What does this mean for me in the long run?” Uncertainty is a nasty little companion in the set of our human emotions. Some short-, mid-, and long-term perspectives in these challenging times of COVID-19, help reduce that feeling and put you back into the driving seat.
The present (Early April 2020)
It took most of us by surprise. Almost nobody would have thought that this virus will be such a life-changer. Wuhan was far away, too far to be concerned. Honestly, who knew this 11mn city before? Only when they canceled the Carnival of Venice, I started to worry. We all know from the movie Jaws how difficult it was to close a small beach because of a great white shark. Economic interests are powerful, and a small virus is hardly visible. Therefore, the strict measures taken by the authorities in the days and weeks that followed are surprising. Indirectly, it showed their fears for the collapse of our healthcare system and massive social unrest.
Let us do the math for a better understanding of the danger. For example, Austria had 360,000 projected cases in a flatter curve vs. 2mn in a worst-case scenario, thereof 10% — 20% to be hospitalized or 1% — 10% to require ICU beds (one of the bottlenecks in this pandemic). There are +/-2,600 such beds available with an average of 15% vacancy rate (surgeries, strokes, heart attacks would not just stop from happening). That makes 650 beds vs. 3,600–36,000 required ones. Austria has a population of 9mn and a well-equipped healthcare system. Apply multiples for your own country, and you will see that based on such scenarios, our health care system, a central column of modern society, was at risk of collapsing.
As of today, three weeks into the lockdown, Austria has ~12,700 people tested positive, with 243 casualties and the exact number of severe cases. Now, we either significantly overestimated the risks at a very high economic price (hard to believe), or the measures surprisingly worked wonders, and we will rather peak at 20,000–50,000 cases. While the latter is difficult to think of, it is still better than a possible third scenario. Here we would reach the initially communicated (best case) peak of 360,000 in four to eight weeks, in other words, a tsunami in slow-motion. That is the real challenge for the next couple of weeks.
Short Term Perspectives (1–4 weeks) - Beginning of May
One thing is for sure. If the peak happens only in two months, people will not stay at home for so long. The sense of urgency is fading, and in democratic societies, the emergency ruling is not very popular. Quarantine comes from the old Venetian word quarantena meaning 40 days. That was the time when ships and people had to stay in isolation because of the plague (which erased 30% — 60% of Europe’s population back then vs. 0,2% — 0,04% in the worst / best case COVID-19 scenarios). Small businesses might survive for one month. After two, they are dead, midsized after three to four. The state will most likely bail out larger corporations. M&A activities will increase. The backbone of an economy (small and medium-sized companies) will severely suffer if we make the wrong decisions these days.
So what will or must happen in the next couple of weeks? Rather quickly, we need to reduce the strict lockdown for economic and practical reasons. A long-term global recession could lead to many more indirect casualties. It would also put the political survival of current decision-makers at risk. That will not happen overnight. The Austrian government will allow opening shops again, but with strict rules on doing business there (for example, 10m2 per 1 person per 1 shop/restaurant guaranteeing the necessary social distance). Wearing masks could become mandatory in these shops, maybe even when you just put a foot on the street. The same will apply to public transport and offices. The latter is not suited for the possibility of social distancing. Hence, lots of us (though not all) will still have to work from home at least for some time.
Nevertheless, it will feel for most of us like an essential first step towards back to life we used to know. Some restaurants might temporarily switch to pick up (in contrast to delivery service) before a full opening. Borders will still be closed during that period. The first regular planes with passengers will not start in April, more likely in May.
A key challenge for the next 1–4 weeks, as mentioned above, will be keeping the support of the people at a sufficiently high rate. We will closely watch the numbers. If it turns out to be a slow-mo tsunami, effective long term crisis communication is essential. Unless everyone knows someone who got infected or (from a psychological point of view even more important) who died from COVID-19, people will not support any long term measures. There will be some release, not a full one, buying time, increased testing, and adjusting our daily life (wearing masks and continued social distancing). One thing, however, is guaranteed. Soon we will be able to spend more time outside again.
Summary:
· Critical period since current actions will have a massive long-term impact on the economy.
· Gradual reduction of lockdown measures, an increased testing (in particular antibody test), continued social distancing, wearing masks (in all public areas), re-opened shops and restaurants with a 10–1–1 rule.
· In total, we can expect a reduction of 25% — 50% of the current constraints (best to a medium case) in the case of Austria; others might lag behind a week or two.
