Short, Mid and Long Term Perspectives in Corona Times (2 of 2)
COVID-19 is one of the biggest collective crises that each of us has ever experienced. In times of uncertainty, we need perspectives. While Groundhog Day is still not over, there is light on the horizon. In the end, we could turn all the fear and pain into something better — global resilience. Get some inspiration for where this journey can lead us to.
Mid Term Perspectives (up to 6 months) - End of September
By the end of this period, we will have passed the peak of COVID-19 cases. The fear of dying from the virus will have switched to more existential angst due to economic reasons. Like after a flood, the real damage shows itself only in the aftermath. It is a bit difficult to say how massive the impact of the upcoming recession will be. Decisions made right now do influence this outcome significantly.
On a less existential level, many people also ask themselves: “Will I still be able to go on summer vacation?” Well, an honest answer is: this depends. Those who have enough cash left will see themselves in a position where the destination is of importance. July and August can still represent challenges for long-distance traveling. Even short distance vacationing, though most likely possible, will not be the same as initially planned. Imagine social distancing on a beach. Larger social and cultural events (football, concerts, etc.) will happen again, but first either in a ghost setup (on TV only) or with a much smaller audience.
After the lockdown, there will also be a lot more singles. Days and weeks in confined space will have tested many relationships to the extreme. Heard-immunity will not be in place within four weeks. From a mid-term perspective, there is a fair chance for that. People will be so much used to seamless paying that fiat money will play a minor role in the future. However, even after six months, life will not return to what it was before. We will see shops and restaurants that will never reopen again or had to close down in the process, and each of us will know someone who became unemployed, or we might even find ourselves looking for a job.
Summary:
· Switch from “fear-to-die” to “existential angst,”
· We will have reached infection peaks, and clearing works are in full progress,
· In total, we can expect to have regained up to 90% of our freedom by the end of September but will face massive economic consequences.
Long Term Perspectives (up to 1 year) - Spring 2021
Almost everyone will have been affected in one or the other form. Some people will have lost loved ones, others their job. Every single one who died will leave tears and sadness behind. However, on a bigger picture, it is essential to understand that every year around 0.9% — 1% of the entire population dies as part of the life cycle (82,000 people in Austria or 2,800,000 in the US), in developing countries, even more. Many of the COVID-19 casualties will have died with, rather than just from the virus. Our planet is pretty resilient. The plague in the 14th century killed 25% of the global population, and in 1918 the Spanish flu up to 5%. Both were a mere hick-up system-wise. There will still be a net-population growth globally. That is not very helpful for those who lost someone, but from a holistic point essential to understand.
A more critical impact will be the economic one. We will need at least 12–24 months to recover from the recession. For the time being, China will be the only winner (to the other global players), though not necessarily in a sustainable way. Russia will suffer and see its triple billion bad weather funds having melted away. The low oil price and an unclear political transformation will play their part. Whoever will be sitting in the White House in one year, with the current politics, the US is further eroding its former global leadership role. Last but not least, the European Union must urgently reinvent itself. It has lost vital credibility, seems to be all, but a crisis manager.
We have seen what governments are willing to do with our data privacy under the pretext of being in an emergency. We must be very attentive to this side. On the positive side, we will hopefully have understood that there is something else out there than just being part of a hamster wheel. People will appreciate the silence and fresh air much more. There will also be a lot of babies as a result of the lockdown. Some people already call them Generation C.
Under the line, let us turn the fear and loss of this global distress into something positive. While the refugee crisis made it to our doorstep, the virus came into our homes. Millions of people have understood that they are not living in isolation. Lots of dangers do not stop at our borders. First, a vaccine will only be available within 9–18months (as of today), and there will be other viruses (COVID-20, 21 …), maybe even deadlier once. We must all work together on improving the resilience of our health care systems to be better prepared next time. Second, we will need a collaborative feeling, especially when starting to tackle other challenges ahead of us. Be it climate change, overpopulation, disarmament, or singularity (when AI will become smarter than humans). Very few of us have ever experienced a crisis of such a scale in our life so far. It will do something to our resilient collective ego. Let us hope for the good!
Summary:
· The world population is still growing while the economy is slowly restarting again,
· Lots of old hamster wheel patterns are back in place (though not all),
· A unique chance for tackling global challenges (climate change, disarmament, singularity, …) emerged out of the fear and pain and resulting awareness of not living in isolation.
Call for Action
My dear New Yorkers, Muscovites, and everybody else out-there hang in! At one point soon, this COVID-19 nightmare will be over. Then we will have to start rebuilding what we had, and in this process, we must try to make everything a little bit better! Until then, don’t forget: when you meet someone on the street, smile at them. We are all in this together, and visual contacts are safe ;-) Just keep your social distance for the time being, and then we will all live long and prosperous!
